Myanmar coup explained: what has happened so far?
- Alba Pou
- Apr 5, 2021
- 5 min read
Updated: Apr 18, 2021
The death toll of peaceful protesters is increasing in Myanmar. In the almost daily protests against the coup, security forces under military command have opened fire, leaving a current death toll of over 550 citizens. And the situation only seems to worsen.
Quick summary of the events so far.
On February 1st, the military took power in Myanmar, putting an end to the country's brief democratic experience (2010-2021). The constitution of Parliament was supposed to happen on that day. However, after losing the national governmental elections, the military overthrew State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi's government in a coup before any parliamentary action could begin.
Min Aung Hlaing, the commander-in-chief of the country's armed forces, Tatmadaw, staged that the elections had been fraudulent, although proof of it was never revealed. Aung San Suu and Win Myint, president of the country, were arrested with other National League for Democracy members, the ruling democratic party since the general elections in 2015.
In the last two months, the military has faced extraordinary relentless resistance from the civilian population. A large demographic is young and wants a return to the democracy that their parents fought for. They are not willing to give up their freedom.
There has been a violent backlash in most of the protests. The military has forced disappearances, detentions, and tortured whoever stood in their way. Since February 1st, security forces have killed at least 550 civilians, 46 of which were children, according to the activist group Assistance Association for Political Prisoners (AAPP). The group also said that 2,751 people have been detained or sentenced so far.
The UN envoy that monitors the crisis alerted the Security Council of the risk of civil war and an "imminent bloodbath" if the junta continues to repress the pro-democracy movement violently. "I appeal to this council to consider all available tools to take collective action and do what is right, what the people of Myanmar deserve, and prevent a multidimensional catastrophe in the heart of Asia," said special envoy on Myanmar Christine Schraner Burgener.
Refugees fleeing the country.
At least 3,000 villagers have fled to Thailand, and about 2,000 have been returned by the Thai army since their government has a policy that does not allow them to go through. In fact, clashes have already begun near the border.
In India, the centre has asked north-eastern states that share a border with Myanmar to locate and report any Myanmar citizens trying to get into the country.
Saturday, March 27th, was the bloodiest day of the unrest so far. Senior members of the junta celebrated National Force Day, inviting eight nations to join a large dinner that included fireworks and a drone show.
On that day, they murdered at least 141 civilians, including a five-year-old child. However, the blood bath didn't stop then. On Sunday, at least 20 more civilians were killed, and on Monday, another 14. Moreover, Reuters has reported that security personnel have upgraded their weapons to grenade launches.
Karen villagers being carried by refugees and Thai paramilitaries after crossing border at a Thai-Myanmar border in Mae Hong Son province.
What are neighbouring countries doing?
The silence on the issue is extreme from some neighbouring countries in the Association of South-East Asian Nations. Some have simply made solemn statements and are currently denying shelter to Burmese people fleeing from Myanmar's turmoil and repression.
Geopolitical interests from China might play a crucial role in the issue, and some bordering countries like India could choose to ignore the humanitarian disaster that is unfolding in their backyard.
A new statement that New Dehli is concerned about the political turmoil in Myanmar has been issued. Still, there has been no call to stop the violence nor any message addressing the military coup. However, India's border state of Manipur has withdrawn the order that told officials to "politely turn away" refugees crossing over from Myanmar.
On the bloodiest day so far, eight nations attended a dinner and military parade, a sign of support and denial of the country's current human rights violations. India was one of them. Chinese and Russian representatives also attended the celebration since both countries will continue to supply the military junta with weapons.
The Chinese ambassador said that calling for sanctions would only make tensions worse. Russia expressed its support to the military junta as its deputy defence minister held a talk with Min Aung Hlaing. Thus any stricter action from the Security Council seems unlikely.
Every country is watching Myanmar's situation in terms of geopolitical strategies, and the military junta seems to have more options for support.
Ethnic militias back the popular uprising.
Myanmar's ethnic armed groups have historically clashed with the military for greater autonomy. They have largely remained silent about the coup and military's atrocities. Three groups, however, launched a statement asking the military to stop killing protesters or else they will join what they call Myanmar's Spring Revolution.
Saw Moe was a youth leader and activist in Myanmar's Karen state who participated in many anti-coup protests. He is now a recruit with the armed group Karen National Defence Organisation (KNDO). "I went to protest every day. The police and army opened fire on us. They shot us with real bullets", he told Al Jazeera. Like many other desperate youngsters, Moe is now training to fight back joining an ethnic armed group.
"When we protest on the streets, the Burmese army and police shoot at us. They have cracked down on our demonstrations, but we are not afraid. We've been afraid of them for many years. This time we have to fight against their power. We have to win this time," said another KNDO recruit.
According to the International Crisis Group, around one-third of the country's territory is controlled by 20 armed rebel groups. Since Independence from British colonial rule in 1948, Myanmar has developed as a country with a complex mixture of cultural, ethnic and linguistic groups.
The main groups include the United Wa State Army, the Karen National Union, the Kachin Independence Army, the Arakan Army, the Ta'ang National Liberation Army and the Myanmar Nationalities Democratic Alliance Army.
Experts and analysts have warned that if the insurgent groups follow their retaliation threats for the deadly crackdown on protests, the crisis could escalate into more conflict. Some have also advised of the possibility of a civil war.
What is expected to happen in the days ahead?
Further violence by the military and more blood is expected as protesters are arming themselves in defence.
The military is likely to get stronger and remain united.
There is a sense that the crackdown is pushing people beyond fear. Mass protests will continue to be repressed, but students and activists fighting could end up joining armed groups. This situation could lead to a civil war.
The protests for democracy in Myanmar are widespread and mainly led by the youth. The international community must shape a response to this crisis before it is too late.
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